POINTS PERMUTATIONS: When could Antonelli win the World Championship?

Kimi Antonelli has remained at the top of the drivers’ standings since Round 3 of the campaign in Japan – and his hold on the P1 slot was strengthened following his victory at the United States Grand Prix.

The Italian is now 123 points clear of closest challenger George Russell following the 18th event of the season, while third-placed Lewis Hamilton is now 124 points adrift.

Antonelli has previously insisted that thinking about the title is “exactly what I don’t want to do”, but following his win in Austin, even the Italian started to discuss how close he was to that maiden World Championship crown...

How many points are still up for grabs?

Five rounds remain in the 2026 season, with the next being the Mexico City Grand Prix.

This means that the maximum points score still available is 125, which would be achieved by a driver winning every remaining Grand Prix.

Which drivers are still in contention for the title?

Mathematically, two drivers besides Antonelli are still in contention for the championship – just Russell and Hamilton can beat the Italian now.

However, the realistic likelihood of either taking the title is slim, with their chance of winning based on the possibility of Antonelli failing to score any more points and one of the duo winning every race until the end of the season.

In this scenario, Russell or Hamilton could seal the title in Abu Dhabi.

When could Antonelli claim the World Championship?

Antonelli had a chance of winning the title at the United States Grand Prix, and he almost did it too. He needed to win the race and have Hamilton finish fifth or lower, and Russell finish ninth or lower.

While the 20-year-old held up his end of the bargain with victory in Austin, Hamilton finished fourth and Russell eighth to deny him the title.

But his maximum score means it is very likely that Antonelli will win the title in Mexico City. For this to happen, Antonelli would need to finish at least ninth. If he does so, it does not matter where Russell or Hamilton finish, the title will belong to the Italian.

In other words, Antonelli needs to score just two more points to take the title. If he fails to score, he will still take the title if neither Russell nor Hamilton win the race.

If Antonelli finishes P10, Russell can keep the title fight going to Sao Paulo with a victory.

When can Mercedes clinch the Teams' Championship?

Following their 29-point haul from Austin, Mercedes can seal the Constructors' Championship title in Mexico City, although it remains a long shot with Ferrari still very much in contention.

If they take a 1-2, then the Silver Arrows need Ferrari to score four points or fewer to take the title next weekend.

If Antonelli and Russell take the win and a third place, they need Ferrari to score one point or less.

Any other scenario sees that title battle move on to the next round in Sao Paulo.